Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh

Abstract. Floods are the most common and damaging natural disaster in Bangladesh, effects of floods on public health have increased significantly recent decades, particularly among lower socioeconomic populations. Assessments social vulnerability flood-induced outcomes typically focus local to regional scales; a notable gap remains comprehensive, large-scale assessments that may foster management practices. In this study, socioeconomic, health, coping capacity composite social-health assessed using both equal-weight principal-component approaches 26 indicators across Bangladesh. Results indicate vulnerable zones exist northwest riverine areas, northeast floodplains, southwest region, potentially affecting 42 million people (26 % total population). Subsequently, measures linked flood forecast satellite inundation information evaluate their potential for predicting actual impact indices (distress, damage, disruption, health) based immense August 2017 event. Overall, forecast-based equally weighted perform best. Specifically, strongly align with distress, records observed. Additionally, index also correlates well indices, illustrating its utility identifying predominantly regions. These findings suggest benefits practicality approach assess thematic comprehensive spatial vulnerabilities, support targeted coordinated